The forecast model is set up by using the grey-theory,and the particular years of severe calamities in China are forecasted and analysed. 利用灰色系统理论和方法建立灾变预测模型，对中国重灾出现年份作出预测分析。
Case study shows that the proposed method is of high precision, and can be effectively applied to condition forecasting and fault trend forecast analysis of complex systems. 实例研究表明，此方法具有较高的预测精度，可有效地应用于复杂系统的状态预测和故障趋势预测分析。
