High inventory-to-sales ratios suggest further production cuts: In March, we estimate that the real I/S ratio in manufacturing and trade rose back to 1.43 months, equaling the cycle high.

• 仍处于高位的库存-销售比率意味着，企业界还将进一步减产：据我们估算，3月份，制造业和商业的库存-销售比率已回升到1.；43个月，相当于本轮周期的高点。