Based on an analysis of its status quo and causes in Baoshan District, the paper forecasts the development scale of modem service industry within five years by time-sequence grey forecasting methods.

• 在经济全球化和国际产业转移背景下，宝山区行政建制调整、企业活动外置以及产业升级的需要都要求加快发展现代服务业，以促进区域产业结构升级和提高区域竞争力。