And it inconsistently predicts recoveries, bottoming 2.5 months before the past two recessions ended, but seven months before the 1981-82 recession ended.

• 前两次经济衰退时，根据这一数据预测的衰退结束时间比实际结束时间早了两个半月，1981-82那次经济衰退时该指数预示的衰退结束时间更是比实际结束时间早了七个月。