The forecast model is set up by using the grey-theory,and the particular years of severe calamities in China are forecasted and analysed. 利用灰色系統理論和方法建立災變預測模型，對中國重災出現年份作出預測分析。
Case study shows that the proposed method is of high precision, and can be effectively applied to condition forecasting and fault trend forecast analysis of complex systems. 實例研究表明，此方法具有較高的預測精度，可有效地應用於複雜系統的狀態預測和故障趨勢預測分析。
