To predict SARS epidemic scientifically,a differential equation model with time delay is set up based on the characteristic of SARS,then Kalman Filtering theory is applied to predict SARS epidemic.

• 为了能够科学、准确地预测SARS疫情,论文首先根据SARS的传播特点,建立了含有时滞项的微分方程模型,然后应用卡尔曼滤波理论于所建模型,进行疫情预测。