The results of BGM methods are better than Monte-Carlo methods and control prediction, and reflect the uncertainty of location and strength of the rainfall better.

• 最后对这两种初始场扰动方法进行了集合预报检验,检验结果表明,增长模繁殖法在Talagrand分布和动能均方根误差的检验上均优于Monte-Carlo方法。