The expected timethat the climax first occurs in tour and the expected timebetween climaxes are analysed by delayed renewal processes. Further, the formula are given.

• 利用延迟更新过程理论可讨论旅游高峰期的平均到达时间和两高峰期的平均间隔时间,从而可得到旅游高峰期预测的计算公式。