Some results can be seen by the two methods, the failure probability calculated by Monte Carlo method increased with the increase of the runtime of furnace tube under creep and carburization;

• 通过两种方法的结果比较看出，应用蒙特卡罗方法分析计算在蠕变和渗碳的相互作用下炉管的失效概率随着运行时间增加而不断增加；