In a singe pipe wall corrosion prediction model, the transition probability matrix is confirmed by curve fitting method, and a practical example is given for predicting residual wall thickness.

• 在单一管段管壁腐蚀预测模型中，应用曲线拟合确定转移概率矩阵，并用实例对剩余壁厚发展状况进行了预测。