Conclusion The forecasting effect of ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 is appropriate in short-term prediction of the incidence of dysentery in Taiyuan.

• 预测太原市2007-2008年的痢疾发病水平呈平稳下降趋势。 结论ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可作为太原市痢疾发病水平短期预测预报模型。