After calculations based on futures markets, Stiglitz and Bilmes conclude that a significant proportion of this rise is directly due to the disruptions and instabilities caused by Iraq.

• 经过对未来市场的估计，斯蒂格利茨和比尔梅斯推断，伊拉克的分裂和不稳定是导致这种大幅度增长的直接原因。