Abstract: Through building the GM(1.1) of the expense of maritime accident, and modifying the periodicity remnant difference of it, we can get a better measure in the forecast of the direct expense of maritime accidents.

• 文摘:通过将建立的海事直接经济损失预测模型在某港口的运用检验,表明该模型精度较高,对海事直接经济损失的预测应用良好。